The Sleep of Reason Brings Forth Monsters

Well, I know several people who've whistled in the dark & still gotten mugged. There's no reason to believe whistling deters anything. On the other hand, I know of no nuclear attacks (since Aug, 1945). And I can think of *lots* of reasons why nuclear deterrence should work.

• A lack of a crisis or confrontation.
• Rational leaders.
• Ample time for reflection.
• One side considering a first strike.
• That first strike must not be able to destroy all retaliatory weapons.

• Survival is not always considered the highest value.
• Decision-makers not always thoroughly rational.
• Human error or miscalculation could trigger war.
• Technical malfunction could precipitate war.
• A combination of factors could touch off a war.
• Military power more provocative than deterrent (military escalation increases the deterrent value, but it also provocates a response.)
• Vertical proliferation stimulates horizontal proliferation (as we increase our stockpiles, other nations create their own. [1])