Ammunition for Peacemakers

Well, I know several people who've whistled in the dark & still gotten mugged. There's no reason to believe whistling deters anything. On the other hand, I know of no nuclear attacks (since Aug, 1945).

And I can think of *lots* of reasons why nuclear deterrence should work.

It is probably true that the massive stockpiling of nuclear weapons tends to deter a rational ruler from starting a war when there is ample time for reflection and no crisis exists. But that is the least likely way a nuclear war might start. Strengthening nuclear capabilities to guard against that one unlikely scenario greatly increases the probability of war starting in other ways.

Despite allegedly deterrent arsenals, national leaders may start a war because of one (or a combination) of these factors:

• They believe that values more important than survival are at stake--national honor, patriotism, freedom, justice, or religion.
• They do not always act rationally. Their decisions may be affected by macho reactions, fear, anxiety, and other emotional factors.
• Human errors and miscalculations become more likely as nuclear weapons become more numerous and complex.
• Technical or mechanical failures could produce misleading signals, or a computer error in a launch-on-warning system could set missiles flying.
• The buildup on one side provokes similar action by the adversary, increasing the likelihood of a dangerous confrontation.
• The proliferation of nuclear weapons gives to additional nations the means to wage a disastrous war, which could involve the superpowers.